Practices Assessed
17
15 scored · 2 excluded for data integrity
Marketing Priorities
9
6 accelerate-ramp + 3 fill-capacity, all below the 60-referral threshold
New Providers on Ramp
10
5 referral-constrained · 1 ops concern · 1 proof case
Network Q1 Net Production
$12.58M
97.8% of budget · 23 established providers
What This Is & What We're Asking
This model connects three datasets that normally live apart — external referral volume per provider (Go Grow), new-provider production ramps (New Provider Tracker), and established-provider performance vs budget — to answer one question: where should specialty marketing dollars and PRD outreach go first? The core rule, from Matt's June 29 session: a provider receiving fewer than 60 external referrals per month has open capacity that marketing can fill; a provider at or above 60 who is still under-producing has an operations problem that marketing cannot fix.
- Confirm the standing definitions. 60 external referrals/provider/month as the capacity threshold, and $2M net production/provider/year (~$8,333/day) as the full-ramp benchmark for perio/OS providers.
- Greenlight the 9 marketing priorities. Six accelerate-ramp practices (new provider + thin referral pipeline) and three fill-capacity practices (no new provider, but below threshold). Proposed order is the Practice Capacity table below.
- Route PAM Memphis as an ops conversation. Olga Byakina is 33 months in at 33% of benchmark with referrals at threshold — this is not a referral/marketing issue.
- Confirm a separate benchmark for Sandhills Rehab. Prosth/rehab case values run 5–7× the perio average; the $2M benchmark reads differently there, and Riley Allen is already at it.
- Decide on the slot-fill data gap. "% Scheduled" is consults scheduled ÷ referrals received — a proxy, not true slot fill. No provider-level slot-fill data exists in Power BI today. Do we ask BI to build it?
- Resolve the two exclusions. MPSG (excluded from incentive comp — referral counts unreliable) and Central FL Perio (single provider, trending down). Confirm exclusion or fix the source data.
Practice Capacity Overview
Referrals per provider for Q1 and May 2026 against the 60/month threshold. Practices are grouped by capacity signal: marketing priorities first, then at-capacity practices, then exclusions.
| Practice | Specialty | Q1 Refs/Prov | May Refs/Prov | Trend Q1→May | May vs 60 | May % Sched | Q1 Case Accept | Q1 PPH ($) | New Provider | Months In | May Prod (Ann.) | vs $2M | Capacity Signal | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darryl Field OS | Oral Surgery | 61.2 | 52.5 | ▼ down | −7.5 | 83.2% | 78.6% | 290,766 | Yes | 23 | $1,012,524 | 51% | ▲ Marketing Priority — Accelerate Ramp | New provider Velgis (23 mo); May dip from Q1 pace |
| Outerbanks Perio | Periodontics | 53.7 | 48.0 | ▼ down | −12.0 | 83.3% | 95.9% | 303,002 | Yes | 10 | $724,080 | 36% | ▲ Marketing Priority — Accelerate Ramp | New provider Vu (10 mo); excellent case acceptance (96%) |
| Van Scoyoc Perio | Periodontics | 34.2 | 43.5 | ▲ up | −16.5 | 86.4% | 79.1% | 247,523 | Yes | 11 | $985,848 | 49% | ▲ Marketing Priority — Accelerate Ramp | New provider Conner (11 mo); practice lost 1 day/week |
| Alpharetta Perio | Periodontics | 47.3 | 40.0 | ▼ down | −20.0 | 100% | 75.4% | 179,615 | Yes | 13 | $1,053,468 | 53% | ▲ Marketing Priority — Accelerate Ramp | New provider Michelotti (13 mo); referral pipeline thin |
| Lane Perio | Periodontics | 33.0 | 37.5 | ▲ up | −22.5 | 77.8% | 56.8% | 241,906 | Yes | 10 | $613,788 | 31% | ▲ Marketing Priority — Accelerate Ramp | Lowest referral rate in network; Henson ramp constrained |
| Sandhills Rehab | Prosth / Endo / OS | 18.0 | 10.5 | ▼ down | −49.5 | 76.2% | 81.8% | 761,351 | Yes | 24 | $2,079,576 | 104% | ▲ Marketing Priority — Accelerate Ramp | Different model — prosth/rehab; Riley Allen at benchmark |
| Golden Triangle | Periodontics | 51.3 | 46.0 | ▼ down | −14.0 | 77.4% | 69.5% | 276,953 | No | — | — | — | ▲ Marketing Priority — Fill Capacity | Below threshold; no new provider added |
| Columbus Perio | Periodontics | 52.7 | 29.0 | ▼ down | −31.0 | 100% | 64.6% | 379,390 | No | — | — | — | ▲ Marketing Priority — Fill Capacity | May dip to 29 — scheduling gap or seasonality? |
| Pine Belt | Periodontics | 42.0 | 29.0 | ▼ down | −31.0 | 96.3% | 82.4% | 274,987 | No | — | — | — | ▲ Marketing Priority — Fill Capacity | May dip to 29; single provider |
| PAM Memphis | Periodontics | 56.9 | 61.3 | ▲ up | +1.3 | 85.8% | 72.5% | 327,521 | Yes | 33 | $653,400 | 33% | ⚠ Ops Issue — Not Marketing | Olga Byakina: 33 mo, 33% of benchmark — ops concern |
| Aiken OS | Oral Surgery | 228.2 | 233.0 | ▲ up | +173.0 | 82.2% | 88.5% | 222,372 | No | — | — | — | ✓ At Capacity — Maintain | High-volume OS; no open capacity |
| Lowcountry Perio | Periodontics | 93.7 | 85.0 | ▼ down | +25.0 | 83.3% | 90.5% | 241,701 | Yes | 10 | $3,740,136 | 187% | ✓ At Capacity — Maintain | Proof case: highest refs → fastest ramp (Peter Lee) |
| Marshall Wallace | Periodontics | 74.0 | 77.0 | ▲ up | +17.0 | 94.7% | 68.6% | 151,236 | No | — | — | — | ✓ At Capacity — Maintain | Above threshold; PPH below network avg |
| Parkway Perio | Periodontics | 54.5 | 66.0 | ▲ up | +6.0 | 85.6% | 78.5% | 141,073 | Yes | 24 | $1,482,768 | 74% | ✓ At Capacity — Maintain | New provider Mears (24 mo); May refs improving above 60 |
| North River Perio | Periodontics | 84.6 | 62.7 | ▼ down | +2.7 | 83.6% | 71.2% | 195,920 | Yes | 11 | $597,540 | 30% | ✓ At Capacity — Maintain | New provider Bowman (11 mo); pipeline declining Q1→May |
| Central FL Perio | Periodontics | 79.7 | 57.0 | ▼ down | −3.0 | 98.4% | 67.9% | 247,010 | No | — | — | — | — Excluded — Data Integrity | Single provider; trending down from Q1 |
| MPSG | Oral Surgery / Perio | 18.8 | 27.3 | ▲ up | −32.7 | 91.5% | 87.5% | 255,701 | No | — | — | — | — Excluded — Data Integrity | Excluded from incentive comp — data integrity |
≥ 60 refs/provider — at capacity
50–59 — borderline
< 50 — open capacity
· "May vs 60" = May referrals/provider minus the 60 threshold
New Provider Ramp — Net Production Jan–May 2026
Ramp-curve targets (Matt Sesto): months 1–3 $20K/mo · 4–6 $45K · 7–9 $70K · 10–12 $75–100K · 18+ months $150K+. $2M annualized = fully ramped. The pattern to note: referral pipeline predicts ramp speed — Peter Lee (93.7 refs/provider) is the fastest ramp in the network; every referral-constrained provider sits below the 60 threshold.
| Provider | Practice | Start | Mo In | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | 5-Mo Avg | May Annualized | vs $2M | Ramp Target | vs Target | Practice Refs/Prov (Q1) | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Lee | Lowcountry Perio | Aug 2025 | 10 | 289,992 | 223,300 | 227,420 | 321,666 | 311,678 | 274,811 | $3,740,136 | 187% | 75,000 | +236,678 | 93.7 | ★ Model Success |
| Riley Allen | Sandhills Rehab | May 2024 | 24 | 105,129 | 166,066 | 147,979 | 83,461 | 173,298 | 135,187 | $2,079,576 | 104% | 150,000 | +23,298 | 18.0 | ✓ At Benchmark |
| Brian Mears | Parkway Perio | May 2024 | 24 | 75,555 | 64,495 | 119,268 | 69,760 | 123,564 | 90,528 | $1,482,768 | 74% | 150,000 | −26,436 | 54.5 | ✓ Progressing |
| Raz Velgis | Darryl Field OS | Jun 2024 | 23 | 87,256 | 81,889 | 121,705 | 110,420 | 84,377 | 97,129 | $1,012,524 | 51% | 150,000 | −65,623 | 61.2 | ▲ Referral-Constrained |
| AJ Michelotti | Alpharetta Perio | May 2025 | 13 | 51,042 | 80,083 | 91,730 | 73,488 | 87,789 | 76,826 | $1,053,468 | 53% | 100,000 | −12,211 | 47.3 | ▲ Referral-Constrained |
| Chandler Conner | Van Scoyoc Perio | Jul 2025 | 11 | 51,059 | 41,141 | 80,383 | 58,853 | 82,154 | 62,718 | $985,848 | 49% | 75,000 | +7,154 | 34.2 | ▲ Referral-Constrained |
| Kela Bowman | North River Perio | Jun 2025 | 11 | 45,111 | 39,200 | 57,399 | 33,492 | 49,795 | 44,999 | $597,540 | 30% | 75,000 | −25,205 | 84.6 | ⚠ Watch — Pipeline Declining |
| Tam Vu | Outerbanks Perio | Aug 2025 | 10 | 62,451 | 81,985 | 101,823 | 115,450 | 60,340 | 84,410 | $724,080 | 36% | 75,000 | −14,660 | 53.7 | ▲ Referral-Constrained |
| Betsy Henson | Lane Perio | Jul 2025 | 10 | 37,727 | 28,312 | 47,453 | 60,944 | 51,149 | 45,117 | $613,788 | 31% | 75,000 | −23,851 | 33.0 | ▲ Referral-Constrained |
| Olga Byakina | PAM Memphis | Sep 2023 | 33 | 56,147 | 27,125 | 43,875 | 75,357 | 54,450 | 51,391 | $653,400 | 33% | 150,000 | −95,550 | 56.9 | ⚠ Ops Concern |
The proof case: Peter Lee at Lowcountry Perio — the highest referral pipeline in the network (93.7/provider)
produced the fastest ramp: $3.74M annualized in month 10. The counter-case: Olga Byakina at PAM Memphis —
33 months in, referrals at threshold, yet 33% of benchmark. Marketing fixes the first pattern, not the second.
Established Provider Q1 2026 Performance
Q1 net production vs same period last year and budget. Network average $8,130/provider-day against the ~$8,333/day benchmark. Four providers missed budget by a meaningful margin; six have no budget on file.
| Provider | Q1 Net Prod | Q1 SPLY | YoY Var | Q1 Budget | % of Budget | Visits | Prov Days | Prod/Visit | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Godat | 1,008,066 | 1,006,162 | +1,904 | 1,039,688 | 97% | 1,248 | 51 | 807.70 | ✓ On Track |
| John Oettinger | 454,071 | 549,935 | −95,864 | — | — | 397 | 48 | 1,143.80 | — No Budget |
| John Starr | 413,490 | 423,982 | −10,492 | 379,008 | 109% | 383 | 46 | 1,079.60 | ✓ On Track |
| John Harrell | 323,184 | 383,488 | −60,304 | 298,523 | 108% | 386 | 37 | 837.30 | ✓ On Track |
| Jeffrey Sevor | 554,851 | 544,115 | +10,736 | 597,474 | 93% | 921 | 58 | 602.40 | ✓ On Track |
| Jason Strever | 499,203 | 680,143 | −180,940 | 626,172 | 80% | 1,284 | 51 | 388.80 | ⚠ Budget Miss |
| Jerry Dent | 173,423 | 223,412 | −49,989 | 211,741 | 82% | 799 | 38 | 217.00 | ⚠ Budget Miss |
| Grant King | 424,032 | 526,311 | −102,279 | 597,712 | 71% | 974 | 57 | 435.40 | ⚠ Budget Miss |
| Steve Scoyoc | 393,346 | 615,443 | −222,097 | 460,689 | 85% | 524 | 38 | 750.70 | ⚠ Budget Miss |
| Daniel Brockway | 329,030 | 331,956 | −2,926 | 369,740 | 89% | 708 | 53 | 464.70 | ⚠ Watch |
| Brian Pitfield | 339,434 | 351,515 | −12,081 | 333,072 | 102% | 475 | 50 | 714.60 | ✓ On Track |
| Kane Ramsey | 458,997 | 412,719 | +46,278 | 425,856 | 108% | 767 | 46 | 598.40 | ✓ On Track |
| Lynn Wallace | 400,084 | 409,255 | −9,171 | 420,256 | 95% | 624 | 55 | 641.20 | ✓ On Track |
| Robert Vazquez | 627,891 | 394,321 | +233,570 | — | — | 647 | 49 | 970.50 | — No Budget |
| Scott Blanchard | 504,040 | 526,696 | −22,656 | — | — | 866 | 56 | 582.00 | — No Budget |
| Samuel Lester | 488,586 | 428,628 | +59,958 | — | — | 1,055 | 53 | 463.10 | — No Budget |
| Lawrence Ressler | 317,574 | 352,139 | −34,565 | 321,661 | 99% | 781 | 48 | 406.60 | ✓ On Track |
| John Lane | 342,077 | 374,518 | −32,441 | 354,925 | 96% | 898 | 58 | 380.90 | ✓ On Track |
| Jamie Clay | 239,126 | 175,482 | +63,644 | — | — | 449 | 40 | 532.60 | — No Budget |
| Robert Stewart | 219,592 | 148,233 | +71,359 | — | — | 325 | 47 | 675.70 | — No Budget |
| Charles McBrayer | 844,480 | 912,571 | −68,091 | 857,036 | 99% | 2,134 | 48 | 395.70 | ✓ On Track |
| Darryl Field | 505,656 | 595,666 | −90,010 | 621,309 | 81% | 881 | 50 | 573.90 | ⚠ Budget Miss |
| Mark Blum | 28,405 | 44,351 | −15,946 | 31,362 | 91% | 66 | 8 | 430.40 | — Partial Qtr |
| Network Total / Average | $12,575,542 | $12,053,693 | +$521,849 | $12,860,337 | 97.8% | 21,700 | 1,545 | $580.90 |
Model Assumptions & Data Sources
- Referral capacity threshold
- 60 external referrals / provider / month. Below threshold = open capacity; marketing can drive schedule fill.Source: Matt Sesto
- Production benchmark
- $2M net production / provider / year (~$8,333/day). Applies to perio/OS providers ≥ 3–4 years in, at 4 days/week.Source: Matt Sesto
- Network average (TTM May 2026)
- $8,130 / provider-day · $48.8M TTM · 85,489 visits · 48 specialty providers tracked.Source: Matt Sesto leaderboard
- New-provider ramp curve
- Referrals: 15 → 20 → 30 → 40 → 45/mo. Production: $20K → $45K → $70K → $75K → $100K/mo (months 1–3 / 4–6 / 7–9 / 10–12 / 12+).Source: New Provider Tracker 2025
- % Scheduled (Go Grow)
- Consults scheduled ÷ referrals received — not slot-fill rate. No true slot-fill data exists in Power BI at provider level today.Source: Go Grow May 2026
- Referral data
- External referrals from the referring GP/specialist network only. Does not include self-referrals or web/direct inquiries.Source: Go Grow Q1 + May 2026
- Capacity proxy model
- Visits ÷ (provider days × benchmark visits/day). No true slot-fill data available; proxy is directionally accurate.Adapted from the Power BI Hygiene model
- Sandhills Rehab / Riley Allen
- Prosth/rehab model — case value 5–7× the perio average. A different benchmark applies; Riley Allen at $2M is appropriate for this model.Source: Go Grow Q1 2026
- PAM Memphis / Olga Byakina
- Ops concern — 33 months in at 33% of benchmark. Not a marketing/referral issue; requires an ops/clinical conversation.Source: New Provider Tracker 2025
- MPSG
- Excluded from incentive comp — referral counts not reliable for capacity analysis.Source: Matt Sesto notes
- Data as of
- Q1 = Jan–Mar 2026 · May 2026 = most recent monthly data · Compiled June 29, 2026.